fangraphs 2022 projections standingsfangraphs 2022 projections standings
Texas, on the other hand, had an incredibly productive offseason, but the fact remains that this was an awful team entering the winter. Which is why they were trying to trade him up until the last minute. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. Read the rest of this entry . Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. Something went wrong. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. by Retrosheet. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected point total, its probability of . Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Projected lineup. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. Its supposed to be, fool me once shame on you, fool me cant get fooled again.. In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Looking at the in-season ZiPS projections, roster strength has varied much more in recent years than when I started doing this. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 9:47 AM ET, Park Factors They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. So how does it work? Oops. The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. Location: Karta. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The exercise continues this offseason. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Sign up for the NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). Read the rest of this entry . . The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. It isnt difficult to understand why the Mets locked up Edwin Daz so quickly. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. The exercise continues this offseason. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. The lesson is that the competitive window can close really fast, dont take anything for granted, and dont invite back your 76 year old buddy to manage the team because you feel like you owe him a favor. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. Bryson Stott (No. Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. The exercise continues this offseason. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Here we see the results of Alex Anthopoulos ruthlessly ensuring that Atlantas entire core stays put for a very long time. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. Read the rest of this entry . Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got their feet wet in the majors last year; now Seattle will turn to Julio Rodrguez, Matt Brash, and George Kirby to keep the youth movement going; Rodrguez and Brash made the Opening Day roster, and Kirby could soon join them. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. When it comes to the Giants, ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Kyle Harrison, which helps to mute some of the loss of Carlos Rodn. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Odds & lines subject to change. These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. And at that number Cleveland wont play. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. Its insane. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. Gambling problem? The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? The Colorado Rockies are a baseball team. Read the rest of this entry . (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. I dont see them trading for Murphy. Not sure thats really true. Read the rest of this entry . Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. The exercise continues this offseason. We had four good months last year. And then theres the Orioles. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Well start with Fangraphs. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. by Mike Podhorzer November 16, 2022 Let's finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. Read the rest of this entry . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Eliminating the gap is a fools errand. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. The Dodgers argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. ANGELS 1) How many of the vets can stay healthy? Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the worlds most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). It's not all bad. Still they lost their starting catcher (Posey), second baseman (Solano), left fielder (Bryant), and best pitcher (Gausman). It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. 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